Even with a Win at Iowa, the Spartans Need Help



State's weak schedule could hush National Title talk

Yes, it is true, the Michigan State Spartans have been an impressive, surprise team sitting undefeated at #5 in the BCS. Yes, baring a choke loss to Minnesota, Purdue, or Penn St., Sparty will most likely represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl regardless of its outcome vs Iowa.

And yes, given MSU finishes undefeated, they will most likely clinch a spot in the BCS Championship game…not exactly.

Historically, fans would expect most Big Ten teams sitting at #5 with four games left to have the opportunity to leap frog their way in the rankings to become a potential championship contender. This is not the case with the Spartans this year. Finishing undefeated, the Spartans would experience Bosie St. Syndrome: their schedule will be their ultimate downfall.

Bottom line, Michigan St.’s schedule is weak this year. The Spartans failed to play a Division 1-A team in the top 50, and played only one team in the top 95 as part of their nonconference schedule this year. Additionally, the home scare vs ever depleting Notre Dame, who incidentally experienced a 35-17 loss to Navy last week, is going to continue to look less impressive to voters. Also, removing Wisconsin and Iowa, Michigan State’s remaining Big Ten schedule has a combined record (six teams) of 18-19 heading into the last weekend in October. Considering you have teams like Auburn, who has wins over four of the top 25 ranked teams (South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU, Miss. St) ranked ahead of Sparty, an undefeated Michigan St. starts to look less and less impressive than a one-loss team in Auburn or even Alabama.

It's true with a win this weekend, the Spartans would accumulate their second win versus a BCS ranked team. The only problem is a victory over Iowa could effectively knock the Hawkeyes out of the Top 25. Plus, the Spartans have to worry about how well a win over Iowa will look at the end of the year. Given a loss in Iowa City this week, the Hawkeyes still have to face perennial power Ohio St. on Nov. 20. A loss there (or against a sneaking Wildcat team in Evanston the week prior), and all of the sudden a four-loss Iowa team loses its notoriety as a quality win.

That leaves the Badgers as MSU’s lone best friend in the conference. State must hope that Wisconsin wins out to protect the Spartans from a one-loss SEC champion in the season’s final poll. With Sparty rooting for two losses from either Missouri (will happen), Auburn (hello Bama), or Oregon (least likely), it would be very possible for the argument to be over who’s the more deserving #2, Michigan St. or Bosie St., come year end. And with college football wanting to put the Boise St. question to rest, don’t be surprised if this year it's Michigan St. that comes down with a case of Boise St. syndrome.